A HIGHER RISK OF STAGFLATION

The Fed has been pumping so money into the economy mostly to try to keep it from collapse. Recent unemployment numbers were anemic. While there are a lot of jobs out there the skill mismatch is a big problem.

Way back in the 1970s the fiscal policies vs the monitory policies resulted in negative real interest rates. Real rates are the the nominal rate minus inflation. Today the real interest rates are negative real rates suggesting a new round of stagflation is coming back to embarrass the planet.

With inflation at 5% it is about half the rate of the 1970s. In 1973 the first oil shock caused long lineups at service stations. A second shock in 1978 agaIn staggered the economy. Politicians were unable to figure out that nobody has unlimited nominal spending power. So come 1981 interest rates rose very rapidly to remove all the cash from circulation. The high rates drove many into insolvency.

Today there are some differences. the congress has a self imposed debt ceiling to keep them from spending money in pork barrel bills, Back in the 1950s and 1960s a bill would have évrytones pet project added and the bill would pass allowing new parks and other development. Into the 1970s things got wat out of hand. So the Fed’s hand was forced,

After years of low interest rates the economy of banks is fairly good bot many corporations are over leveraged. Stock buybacks are one way to avoid double taxation of dividends. Until the tax policy changes more systemic risk is likely.

Game development has been less risky in the modern age as compared to the 1990s when the tech bubble was causing to much speculation. Today with so many games it’s hard even for Halo to rack up the cost of development. Halo is popular enough to keep the developers working on more expansions.

halo 4 screenshot 6
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